Deal Pattern: 12pk of RxBars for $20.80 on Mondays

UPDATE #2: if you are planning a Prime Pantry order, as of 10/31/16 PM, the 12pk of Chocolate Sea Salt goes for $20.75. You can buy as many as you can fit into the Prime Pantry box. Each 12pk is 3.6% volume. NOTE that availability of these depends on zipcode because it’s PrimePantry, not the regular Amazon that can ship things all over the place from any warehouse anywhere. The ones mentioned below are for the regular Amazon. PrimePantry is Prime-members only…

UPDATE 10/31/16 AM: Sure enough, one more validation point for “The RxBar 538 Model”, good until 3pm ET today is the 12pk RxBAR Pumpkin Spice on a lightning deal for $20.80. Of course it is the Pumpkin Spice, Harvest and Halloween and all 🙂 [or pure coincidence]

Please note this is a recurring pattern but there’s no guarantee it will happen every week. By monitoring the lightning deals and looking at my order history, I discovered that there is a pattern on the 12-pack of the RxBar protein-bars. On some Mondays, different flavors are offered as a 4-hour lightning deal for the specific price of $20.80, making them under $2 per bar, which defeats Trader Joe’s standard price and the Whole Foods sale price (they have a 2 for $4). The $20.80 price makes it $1.73 per par. If you have any leftover credit from the Sample Boxes, it will also apply automatically. I had a $1 leftover that I hadn’t previously used that got auto-applied to my order last month.

So what evidence do I have of the pattern? Three pieces of hard evidence and more “memory evidence”. Last Monday, starting at 11am Eastern, there was a lightning deal on the Blueberry 12-pack for $20.80. I took a screenshot (the time below is Pacific):


Evidence #2 and #3 surfaced was when I went digging into my order history. I had placed ordered on these on October 17 and also in June 2016, and both were $20.80 lightning deals. I don’t know what the starting prices were for these, the order page only shows the date, not the exact order time.

HOW to LOOK for IT?

There are two ways to look for it. You can go to the product page for the 12-packs and check for a sale on Monday AM. I don’t have enough data to be able to guess which flavor would be offered. They are all on the same listing, ten official options (nine flavors, and one assorted).

The other way to check is the Grocery Lightning Deals. If you are checking too early, you can try filtering by “Upcoming” to cut down on the volume of the listings.

Again, having said all that, keep in mind this is ONLY a PATTERN, there is no guarantee this will happen every week, or next week or ever again. I will pay attention to them though (since I like them and buy them), and will update this post when I “recalibrate my model”. Yes, I am the Nate Silver of RXbar Lightning Deals 🙂